Is Wisconsin the last, true swing state? History says “yes,” and here’s how close this year’s election could be:
Four of the last six presidential elections have been decided by less than one percentage point here, with Donald Trump winning in 2016 before losing by a similar margin in 2020.
“Everybody needs to be prepared for an all-out war as usual,” longtime Republican strategist Stephan Thompson predicted. And that’s no hyperbole.
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Wisconsin will once again be one of the biggest toss-ups in next month’s generation election–a distinction held by a shrinking, but often shifting number of places. Former swing states like Ohio and Florida are becoming more reliably Republican, while places like Virginia and Colorado are becoming more Democratic.
That leaves Wisconsin, along with Georgia, Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Nevada as the most competitive states that could decide the presidency.
How Did We Get Here?
- In 2000, Al Gore carried Wisconsin by 5,700 votes–or .22% of the total votes cast.
- In 2004, John Kerry won with a .38% margin of victory.
- In 2016, Donald Trump turned the state red with a .77% margin.
- Then, in 2020, Joe Biden repainted it blue with a 21,000 vote–or .56%–margin of victory.
And there’s no sign our state is any less divided this year.
“Wisconsin has almost the exact mix of urban, suburban, and rural populations that are needed to maintain a competitive status,” Anthony Chergodsky, a University of Wisconsin-La Crosse political science professor, said in an interview with the AP. “It all adds up to a state that is highly-contested politically, but a state that does not look like it did 10, 20, or 30 years ago.”
